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"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood." ..."Marie Curie 1867-1934, Polish born French Physicist, Twice Nobel Prize Winner- Physics and Chemistry)"

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 Author Topic: Simplified model of flu spreading  (Read 5518 times) 0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic. Click to toggle author information(expand message area).
Fu-Kwun Hwang
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 « Embed this message on: May 22, 2009, 12:39:16 pm » posted from:Taipei,T\'ai-pei,Taiwan

This is a simplified flu spreading model.
All the particles are distributed randomly (position, velocity and moving direction).
Assume only one of them is inflected at time t=0, and the color become red when it is inflected (others are shown in gray)
Assumption:
1. The condition to get inflected is by collision (between un-inflected element and inflected element).
The probability for gray element to get inflected when collision occurred is p. if p=0.5, it means that, on average, un-inflected element need to be collide with inflected element twice to be inflected.
2. The time for the element to develop an immune system is T.
If the element is inflected at time t, then the immune system is developed at time t+T , and it will not be inflected anymore (the color turn to green).

You can adjust the probability to get inflected p, the time to develop immune system T , the average velocity of the particle to find out different flu spreading pattern.

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"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood." ..."Marie Curie 1867-1934, Polish born French Physicist, Twice Nobel Prize Winner- Physics and Chemistry)"
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